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Taylor Swift is very easily at a career peak right now, at a level that most artists won’t ever come close to. Her popularity has skyrocketed ever since her “Eras” tour, which is the highest grossing tour of all time (and isn’t even over yet). Swift’s 2024 has already been quite busy, starting with two Grammys for “Midnights” in February, including a fourth Album of the Year award, which made her the first artist to win that many AOTYs, an impressive feat considering Swift’s career is not even 20-years-old yet. On top of that, Swift put out another new album, “The Tortured Poets Department,” that will likely also compete for a win in that category and others. Now that the album has had some time to marinate in the pop cultural landscape, how do her chances look?
“The Tortured Poets Department” is an obvious commercial success. The record achieved over 2.6 million units in its first week in the United States alone, making it the second biggest album debut since Billboard started calculating equivalent album units in 2014, only behind Adele’s Grammy-sweeping “25.” That might make you think that Swift will sweep too, but a few things need to be taken into consideration first.
For starters, selling a lot doesn’t necessarily equate to Grammy wins. Consider NSYNC‘s “No Strings Attached,” the second-best-selling first-week album of all time (by traditional album sales only as this was the era before streaming came to the fore). It lost all of its nominations, and didn’t even get into Album of the Year. “25” won partly because of how Grammy-baity it was, being a traditional, ballad-heavy record, and also due to it being a successful follow-up to the almost unprecedented success of her previous album, “21.” “Tortured Poets” isn’t quite that; it’s more a combination of Swift’s “Midnights” with some shades of her earlier “Folklore.” Now, that’s not to say that sound can’t be Grammy-appealing; both of those albums won Album of the Year, after all. But when examining Swift’s chances, one has to also take into consideration three things: narrative, competition and acclaim.
Swift’s biggest hurdle this year is the lack of a strong narrative. As much of a personal feat as a fifth Album of the Year title would be, it’s really not something that would get voters excited when she’s already the artist with the most wins ever. Also, Swift broke this record just a few months ago, so there’s really no hurry to reward her in that category again. That’s unlike, for example, “Fortnight,” which could become Swift’s first win in many categories: Song of the Year, Record of the Year and Best Pop Duo/Group Performance. It might be more enticing to award the song, since Swift’s lack of wins in those categories might generate a better overdue narrative.
That said, winning anything in the general field might be a bit hard without a narrative other than “Swift has never won these particular awards before.” “Fortnight” would have to sustain momentum until voting this fall and prove itself as, truly, the defining record and song of the year — or at least, prove itself to be the most accessible choice. On the other hand, there’s a pretty strong case for a Pop Duo/Group win. The category is a bit weak this year so far, and Post Malone has never won a Grammy, which could galvanize some voters, especially paired with the fact that Swift has lost this category multiple times despite being widely predicted to win it for “Exile” in 2021 and “Karma” in 2024.
As for competition, there is quite a bit this year. All eyes are on Beyoncé, of course, whose “Cowboy Carter” is likely to end up as the most acclaimed contender. The record is a critically hailed hit, and Beyoncé has never won Album of the Year, which would make it even weirder if Swift were to win a fifth over her. For Best Pop Vocal Album, there’s Billie Eilish and Ariana Grande, both of whom could also be competitive for Album of the Year. Swift isn’t adored by pop voters — she has lost in that field many times — so voters might opt out on giving her a third trophy there before Eilish and Grande have even won their second.
And when you factor in the third element — acclaim — Swift is lagging behind. Her new album currently has a modest 76 on Metacritic, which definitely doesn’t make it panned, but the review aggregator doesn’t count it as “universally acclaimed” either. Compare that to Grande’s 84 for “Eternal Sunshine” and Beyoncé’s 91 for “Cowboy Carter”; it looks like there might not be as much passion for “The Tortured Poets Department” outside of Swift fanatics. Eilish’s acclaim is TBD, but her previous two albums have both scored over an 80 on the site.
That said, we are still talking about Taylor Swift here. Being the biggest artist in the world could mean that voters will simply vote for her as a way to recognize her mainstream dominance. For now, what makes the most sense is to assume that Swift’s eggs will be in the “Fortnight” basket. A win for the track for Best Pop Duo/Group Performance would still make the album a Grammy winner, while sparing Swift the possible backlash from beating more beloved records by her peers. Plus, with Swift yet to win Record and Song of the Year, directing the campaign more towards those will probably be a smarter move. But with the Grammys … who knows? Sometimes it’s really just about who’s more visible, and there’s only one answer in that regard.
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