Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift walk together after an AFC Championship NFL football game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, Jan. 28, 2024, in Baltimore. The Kansas City Chiefs won 17-10.AP Photo/Julio Cortez
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You’re not out of the woods yet when it comes to musical references ahead of the 2024 Super Bowl. By now, everybody knows the odds for Super Bowl 58 between the San Francisco 49ers and Taylor Swift’s boyfriend’s team.
San Francisco and Kansas City will meet on Sunday, Feb. 11, at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, and the 49ers are favored by 2 points over tight end Travis Kelce and Kansas City, which is trying to become the la(te)st great American dynasty by winning the Lombardi Trophy for the third time in five seasons.
But the 49ers are favored for a reason. Let’s analyze the game to see which side is the best one on which to place your money.
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When the 49ers finished their stirring comeback win over the Detroit Lions nearly two weeks ago the Super Bowl matchup officially was set, and the opening point spread was released — 2 or 2.5 points in favor of San Francisco.
By the end of that night, the line was down to San Francisco -1 at most online sportsbooks. Since then, however, the point spread has crept back up to where it was originally.
The total opened at 47 or 47.5 points depending on which sportsbook you viewed, and late in the week now it is at 47.5 points almost exclusively across the industry.
Taylor Swift fans who also like to bet on sports have hit the jackpot with DraftKings for the 2024 Super Bowl. In its Super Bowl Specials tab exclusively for the state of Oregon, DK has a “For the Swifties” section with Taylor Swift-themed props. Here are our favorites:
22: Any quarter to have 22+ points scored (+400 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook)
How You Get the Girl: Travis Kelce to score a TD in each half (+950)
I Knew You Were Trouble: Christian McCaffrey 150+ Rushing + Receiving Yards (+160)
Today Was a Fairytale: Travis Kelce to score a TD and Kansas City to win (+240)
You Need to Calm Down: Brock Purdy 200+ passing yards in the first half (+800)
It seems like the masses are going all-in with the same angle for Super Bowl 58. How can you bet against Kansas City and QB Patrick Mahomes?
The reasons why are easy to see. Kansas City is in the Super Bowl for the fourth time in five seasons, so the experience is there. Mahomes has led two Super Bowl victories in that time and won the game’s MVP award both times.
It gets better, too. Mahomes is 10-1-1 against the spread in his last 12 games as an underdog. When the narrative ahead of this season’s Divisional Playoffs was that Mahomes had never played a playoff game on the road, he won not one, but two such games.
How can one possibly bet against him?
Well, let’s not pretend Kansas City has been an incredible team all season. The offense has sputtered at times, and although it does seem like it has found another gear in playoff wins over Miami and Buffalo, it wasn’t exactly electric against Baltimore.
Kansas City established an early lead, and the Ravens’ coaching staff lost its mind by not running the ball a lot. Add to that the fumble Baltimore lost on the 1-yard line, and Kansas City was far from a lock in that game.
Give the Kansas City defense credit for winning the game, but it’s going to score a point in the second half against San Francisco, right?
The popular line when it comes to the postseason in any sport is that advancing to the next round is all that matters. In the broad context of achieving the ultimate goal, that’s true, but don’t 49ers fans feel better about the team after two come-from-behind playoff victories?
Maybe San Francisco learned something about itself with those wins over the Packers and Lions. In the regular season, the 49ers lost games to the Vikings, Bengals, and Ravens in which they fell behind in the first half. It’s easy to talk about being able to come back and win, but until you actually do it, words don’t really matter.
It’s not preferable for San Francisco to fall behind early against Kansas City, but if it happens, stronger belief will be there. In addition to that, if the 49ers take an early lead, everyone knows how well they play from ahead.
The defense is going to have to be better, especially early. Kansas City coach Andy Reid has made a habit of using his best plays early in the game to get down field and establish an advantage. At that point, it’s easier for Kansas City to manage the game since it’s the opponent that needs to come from behind.
So, if the 49ers can weather the storm early, the cream can rise to the top in the second half. They’re used to that now. Lay the points with San Francisco.
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